Tipping Points in Australia's Future

Examples of tipping points

Past examples of tipping points include: the gradual and then, recently, more rapid salinisation of agricultural land in parts of Australia; bleaching of coral reefs in Australia and elsewhere as temperatures have risen; the rapid slide to extinction of many plant and animal species once numbers and habitat dropped below critical limits; rapid changes in consumer preferences for products due to chance exposure through, for example, celebrity endorsement; runs on stocks once perception of price changes reaches a critical level; last minute changes in political fortunes before elections due to chance events; copy cat behaviour after widely publicised violent actions or suicides; rapid escalation of gang or crowd violence once a critical number of people have become involved; rapid spread of pests or diseases once the necessary environmental conditions and infection levels have been established; decline or collapse of communities, small businesses, or corporations once critical interconnected problems reach a sufficient level; collapses of past societies in Africa, Europe, Asia, and North and South America, after centuries of apparent progress, due to combinations of challenges that didn’t seem to be major problems alone but in combination were disastrous.

Some candidates for future tipping points affecting Australia directly or indirectly are: the failure of the Asian monsoons for several years in a row; climate change affecting sea level, temperature and water availability in several key population centres; the prospect of almost continuous drought throughout much of Australia; impacts of oil depletion starting around 2015; major emergence of salinity and acidification of agricultural landscapes by around 2020, pandemics of pests and diseases, including the likes of bird-flu or drug resistant tuberculosis aided by modern, rapid global transportation and low immunity among many Australians.